1. US has lost Afghanistan:
US fought long war in the history. War on Terror launched in 2001 through Operation OEF Operation Enduring Freedom. Two decades long war from Oct 2001 to Aug 2021. So 2 decades long war by US and allies in Afghanistan. More than 3000 major operation were conducted by US and allies across Afghanistan. Small Medium and Major collectively 3000 operations. Then US fought the most expensive war in its history in Afghanistan. More than 2.3 Trillion Dollar means 20300 billion dollars cost was afforded by US in Afghanistan. Hence the most expensive in US history. More is that US made repeated policy shift to win the war against OEF. 3D, Disrupt, dismantle and defeat. AFPAK policy in 2011, Drawdown policy in 2014, Trump's South Asia Policy in 2017 etc. Hence consistent policy shift to win the war against AL Qaeda and Afghan Insurgency. But failed to do so. US BROUGHT NATO in Afghanistan. NATO Troops. 29 countries military organization. It Includes Europe US Canada Turkey etc. So US brought in NATO to Afghanistan under Article 5 if NATO Charter, means Collective Defense. NATO countries are bound to intervene. If any Of the NATO member is under attack and demand or seeks for support from NATO members then all members are bound to attack or retaliate. More than 65k troops with all the possible military technologies by NATO especially that of UK Germany France Canada Turkey Spain etc. It fought the longest ever war in history. More than 2 decades long war fought by NATO under US Patronage. Then the most expensive and long war was fought by NATO members. ISAF NATO and Non NATO countries e.g Australia, South Korea UAE Jordan etc. US prevailed the non NATO countries to send their troops to Afghanistan. AND they also failed to defeat. All possible options were applied by US. First National and the ISAF. Why US failed ? First factor was Ideology held responsible. Taliban had Jihadist ideology that Muslims were attacked by Infidels.Second was Culture of Afghanistan. Afghanis never peacefully coexist with the invaders whether be it Great Britain in 1839, 1867 and in 1911 or be it USSR in 1979 to 1989 or be it war on terror from 2001 to 2021. third factor was Terrain of Afghanistan. Land and weather of Afghanistan was never conducive for Invaders. Mostly Hilly Bealt full of caves made by US against USSR. hard weather from Nov to March fight never possible because of Cold weather. Then fourth factor was that US could not win the support of the neighbours. Russia China Iran have been having the apprehensions that US and NATO had sent troops to Afghanistan not to fight war On terror but To contain China Russia and Iran. Then fourth factor was that US could not win the support of the neighbours. Russia China Iran have been having the apprehensions that US and NATO had sent troops to Afghanistan not to fight war On terror but To contain China Russia and Iran. More was that it also.lost the support of Pakistan and repeatedly antagonized Pakistan. How ? First, presence of India into Afghanistan and escalated tension on Western border and empower of Non pashtun in Afghanistan such as Uzbek. Third repeated sovereign violations like Salala Checkpost Ion which 24 soldiers lost their lives.
2. Revival of afghab Taliban:
US Justice Department Report 2018 says that more than 45 per cent of the Afghan territory directly control by the Afghan Taliban. Then overall 70 percent strong influence if the Afghan territory. Second, since 2014 to 2018 more than 35 percent of the overall attacks made or extend by Afghan Taliban to non pashtun bealt. Urban Centers are controlled by Government forces. Rural Areas are controlled by Taliban. More is that Taliban presence in the urban Centers in the night, Daytime controlled by Government, is increased. US Commander in Chief, In Afghanistan, in March 2021, proclaimed that more than 20p out of 436 districts of Afghanistan are being controlled by Afghan Taliban. He further says in June 2021, 23 out of 34 provinces are under Taliban Control. So much expansion with in 3 months. Furthermore, the month of July and August were decisive. The srmtrongholds of Afghanistan government like Paktiya, Pakhtika, Jalabad, Hilmand, Nangarhar and Noristan had fallen into the hands of Afghan Taliban. which were never lost before by Government. 15th of August the capital Kabul was captured without fight. Panjshir was captured by Afghan Taliban today which was captured in their tenure during the 90s. Why Afghan forces could not stand before Taliban ? Doha Deal in Feb 2020 was signed between US and Taliban. 1. US Agreed to pulling out troops completely and in return Taliban agreed to not fight rather would join the mainstream. 2. Agreed to Intra-Afghan Negotiations, Talks between Afghan Taliban and Afghan Govt. In Intra-Afghan Negotiations, Two points were to be decided. First was that Afghan government would release the Taliban prisoners around 12k prisoners would be released. As per the deal Afghan government was supposed to release but it didn't. around 5k was released but 7k were still detained. In return to this, Taliban Continued to fight and never stopped. Second was the disagreement over the power-share formula. In Power-Share Formula, Afghan Taliban Wanted to establish a Shariah Based Government. Non Elected Shariah Based Government in which all the stakeholders would be accommodated. Non Elected and Sharia Based. But Afghan Government wanted to contest elections and gain power. Resultantly, Disagreement among both the parties remained and Taliban Continued to fight. Now, AFGHAN army could not Stand infront of A Taliban. More than 2lak 80 Hazar Afghan Army equipped with latest military technologies yet again it couldn't stand infront of around 65k Afghan Gurillas. Why ? 1. Afghan Army was ordered 'not to fight' (by Ashraf Ghani). We observed that majority of the areas being captured by Taliban without fighting. Second Afghan government fumbled. How ? President along with ministers fled off to some other country. Why? Because he knew that the continuation of his government and the future of Afghanistan Security Forces are linked with the presence of US and Allies. Once US and NATO decided to pull out so their future became bleak. How ? financial funding by NATO and US and difficult for them to run government anymore
3. Challenges for Afghan Govt:
15th of Aug, Afghan government under Hamid Karzai disintegrated. How ? Asgmgraf Ghanni with his team fled off. Taliban entered into Kabul and established their transitional government. Now Major Challenges to the Government of Taliban. 1. The establishment of Inclusive Government in Afghanistan. How Inclusive government ? Ethnic representation. Now The Afghan Taliban cabinet is dominated by Pashtuns. 27 percent population is Tajik and 2members are in Government. Hazara Around 19 percent and 1 Member in Government. Uzbek around 7 percent and 1 Member in Government. So there is no ethnic representation in Government. So, Ethnic acceptability of The government is still lagging. Then If ethimnic acceptability is not there then issues are WITH CARs and Iran. TALIBAN should form government which is internally acceptable and neighbour aligned. Secondly, the challenge is women representation. Only 1 woman is in their cabinet. West support is conditional to have equal opportunities for women in Government. Thirdly, The divide between conservatives and moderate Taliban. The former is in majority and in secondary or tertionary leadership and want strict imposition of Shariah, and The latter are moderate and hold top positions. They want to establish relations with the world west and neighbour.Economic crunches resulting into massive humanitarian crisis. how? More than 75 percent of the budget ary funds to Afghanistan was dependent on the aid money of Us and NATO countries. That has stopped. 9 Billion USD state bank reserves of Afghanistan is freezed by US. Majority of the foreign and Local Investors fled the country Australia China US Canada. Many of the banks in Afghanistan closed their branches across the country. Overall Result was tremendous Economic Crunch or Crisis. Which resulting into having acute Humanitarian Crisis food crisis, Every third person is facing food shortages and Hard weather. UNHR predicted that dying of more pep pl e because of hunger is compared to total sum of people got martyred in war on terror. Afghan Taliban deal with Economy that is transforming into socioeconomic crisis. How to Deal with ISKP Islamic State of Khurasan province, A branch of ISIS. how to deal with TTP, East Turkmenistan ISLAMIC movement ETIM, Islamic movement of Uzbekistan IMU and Al Qaeda. Besides, ISKP in particular has been a potential threat to Internal Security, targeting to Shia Population , Afghan Taliban and Afghanistan's Strategic Locations such as Airports. These organizations are posing Threats For the Security of the Regions especially Neighvours . e.g For Pakistan, CARs, Iran, China. Moreover, Threat to International Security. ISKP AND AlQaeda attack anywhere in the world. The Role of Taliban has been Changed. How ? From a Non State Actor to the State Force. Emerged as a potential attackers and now transformed into State force. They have to win the confidence of the world. Must ensure afghan land must not be used as a launching pad against neigbours and Us and NATO. another challenge is that fulfillment of Fundamental Rights. to ensure Women Rights and their education, Rights of the Minorities, Capital Punishment etc These are the far-reaching problems or challenges facing by Afghan Taliban.
4. impact for Pakistan
Implications. 1 The geopolitical role of Pakistan in Kabul has revived. From 2004 till 2021, India's influence or Role in Kabul or in Afghanistan is tremendously increased. How ? The government of Hamid Karzai and Later on The government of Ashraf Ghani wa s tremendously influenced by Raw and India. The largest donor was INDIA. the construction of Afghan Parliament House and Roads Infrastructure was built up by India. E.g construction of zarranj Dhilaram road that linked Afghanistan to Iran. Salma dam construction shatoot dam. 5k Scholarship were given to Afghans and so on and Built soft image. Indo-Afghan Strategic Partnership 35k plus Afghan soldiers were trained by Indians. Chunk of Commissioned Officeres were trained in India military academy that culminated into Buolding of anti pak narrative. Raw-NDS Nexus. So immense influence over Afghanistan. India had to Pack up owing to Taliban in power. India always supporting Military or Wa ar options not negotiations. However, Pakistan always supporting. negotiations options. Now TALIBAN in power that tremendously increased the role of Pakistan's political influence So A Geopolitical advantage for Pakistan. Secondly, the security concerns of.l Paksitan from Afghanistan would decline. How? Terrorist Organisation like TTP, ISKP using Afghan Territory against Pakistan. Separatist Organisations Like BLA, BRA, BLF all these using Afghan Territory against Pakistan for henious attacks. BLA AND BRA attacked In Balochinstan and Sindh Karachi and recently two days before attacked Lahore in bomb blast. TTP attacked KPK. DASSU ATTACK on CPEC team. Raw weapon used them. Afghan Government kept soft hand over thses groups. Now Taliban would have to ensure that Afghan Territory not to be used against Pakistan. These were positive implications. Negative Impacts on Pakistan Firstly humanitarian crisis is increasing which eventually will lead to Refugee crisis. Pakistan is already hosting 3m Afghan Refugees. Fled to Neighboring countries and Pakistan is immediate neighbors. Secondly, Pak US Relations may deteriorate. Now during war kn terror, pak was repeatedly blamed by US supporting Taliban. US lost the war in Afghanistan. US would held responsible Pakistan for all failures. Then Pak said Absolutely No to US request for a military bases in Pakistan. Then what we have observed that US congressional Committee to probe or to investigate the role of Pakistan in supporting Afghan Taliban and To impose sanctions over Pakistan. US withdrawal this particular point from the bill, to probe Pak role and impose sanctions. US deputy Secretary of States in New Delhi India Said that Us does not intend to Revive comprehensive multilateral Relations with Pakistan. Moreover, In FATF, 7 new demands were added to the list of demands from Pakistan. US was a driving force behind this. Options available with Pakistan 1. To avoid Humanitarian Crisis in Afghanistan, Pak Must play its role because in Afghanistan humanitarian crisis the worst affectee would be Pakistan after Afghanistan. How to play its Role? Pak Called OIC Conference in Islamabad. P5 of The UN security Council, EU representatives SCO representatives and ASEAN representatives. OIC Theme line was avoid Humanitarian Crisis IN Afghanistan. OIC members, US third EU and fourth China should provide humanitarian aid to Afghanistan. Pak got success . More than 1Billion By EU, I Billion Riyal By KSA. PAK ROLE IS RECOGNIZED AND APPRECIATED by EU, US CHINA. DIPLOMATIC VICTORY OF PAKISTAN. SOFT IMAGE PROJECTION ACROSS THE WORLD IN GENERAL AND AFGHANISTAN IN PARTICULAR. SECONDLY, access Taliban government to deliver on.the promises they made e.g Inclusive government and fundamental Rights Fulfilment. Then Not to allow Afghanistan territory to be used against regional countries. Thirdly, Pak has to approach Neighbour to help Afghanistan. FINANCIAL HELP to avoid Humanitarian Crisis. To give them aid. Secondly transform Afghanistan into Transit Corridor, Help them. IRAN CARs China Russia Iran. Integrate them in BRI. To help Afghan Taliban Government in defeating Terrorist Organisation including ISKP, ISIS, ALQAEDA TTP. Thirdly recognised Taliban Government. Play the role of a bridge between Taliban and US. How can we play This role? Pressurized Taliban to deliver on their Promise. To convince US in general and NATO in particular to give them aid to avoid Humanitarian Crisis. TRIOKA PLUS Conference was held at Islamabad before OIC conference in which US, CHINA RUSSIA AND PAKISTAN participated with objectives : to pressurize Afghan Taliban to deliver on their promises and building on consensus US and regional powers to deal with Taliban.
The Political Culture of Pakistan, negative affects, is Revival of Clergy. JUI F revival is being observed in KPK in Local Government Elections. If not so, the PTI would have to absorb religious sentiments. and to make Alliance with JUI S of Sami Ullah group. In Punjab, The rise of religious groups are based on the Blasphemous acts. TLP. But the situation in Afghanistan must have encouraged them to expand its role. Taliban Empowerment in Afghanistan encouraged religious groups to play active role in power politics. TTP increasing Attacks are being observed Across Pakistan. So all these possibilities are there.
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